The hottest July 15 morning reading of Steel News

2022-09-21
  • Detail

On July 15, the steel news was read early

the economic semi annual report revealed the local "stimulus plan", and the fixed investment of many provinces exceeded trillion. Zhejiang launched a five-year 10 trillion stimulus plan, which raised concerns about the risk of local bonds. The macro data of the first half of the year announced today that the GDP growth rate may exceed 7.5%; Wuhan Iron and steel "Rose" and Baosteel "leveled". The fundamentals of the imbalance between supply and demand in the steel market are still difficult to change. The net profit of Hebei Iron and steel in the first half of the year is expected to be reduced. Shougang Co., Ltd. is expected to lose 250million to 300million yuan in the first half of this year

[introduction to hot spots]

● the steel market has risen for two consecutive weeks, and it is difficult to change the fundamentals of supply-demand imbalance

as soon as the domestic steel market opened in the second half of the year, the steel price has been "red" for two consecutive weeks, and the ton price of some steel products has increased by more than 2% a week. The latest ex factory quotations of some steel mills also offer "rising prices". However, under the market expression of seemingly "increased confidence", the fundamental concern about the imbalance between supply and demand in the steel market is still difficult to eliminate. Since July, the comprehensive steel price in the domestic spot steel market has risen for the second consecutive week, with an average weekly increase of about 0.73%, of which the weekly increase of narrow-band steel is more than 2%. Although some key macroeconomic data are not satisfactory, the capital market is strengthening, and the overweight of environmental protection policies helps to control the release of steel output. The mentality of the steel market has improved. The spot price of steel has risen in the off-season of "off-season", and the prices of major steel products have risen to varying degrees. Only the rise in the past two weeks has had some subtle changes, and the follow-up force of the rebound inevitably raises a question mark

interpretation: since July, the prices of China's steel futures, spot goods and raw materials have risen at the same time, which has brought a glimmer of dawn to the steel market, which has been in "continuous decline" throughout the first half of the year. At present, the rebound height of this wave of steel prices is limited. After all, China's macro-economy is still weak, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the steel market, especially overcapacity, is still severe. 7. August is the traditional off-season for steel consumption, and domestic crude steel production is still high. The continuous rebound force of steel prices is obviously lacking, and the fundamentals of the imbalance in the steel market are difficult to change

● the macro data of the first half of the year was released today, and the GDP growth rate may exceed 7.5%

today, the macro-economic data of the first half of the year, which has attracted much attention from all walks of life, is about to appear. Some previous data showed that there was downward pressure on the economy, but Chinese officials have repeatedly stressed that they are determined and confident to achieve the expected annual economic growth target of 7.5%. Experts said that there was no problem that the economic growth rate stood at 7.5% in the second quarter, and the annual growth rate could reach above 7.5%; China has sufficient resources and experience to stabilize growth, but the focus of current economic policy is not to stabilize growth, but to adjust structure and change mode

interpretation: Recently, Goldman Sachs, Barclays, CICC, HSBC and other institutions have lowered China's economic growth forecast to 7.4% this year, which is slightly lower than the 7.5% target set by Chinese authorities at the beginning of the year. Despite the complex economic environment, Chinese officials are still confident in achieving the expected goal of economic growth. Up to now, the growth rate in the first quarter is 7.7%, and the growth rate in the second quarter will be announced later. It is estimated that it is a little lower than 7.7%, but it will not be too low. Therefore, it should not be a big problem for China's economy to achieve the growth expectation of 7.5% this year. At present, the focus of China's policy is no longer to pursue economic scale and rapid growth, but to adjust the structure and mode

[related]

● Hebei Iron and Steel's net profit in the first half of the year is expected to fall into the continuous decline of steel prices

on the evening of July 12, Hebei Iron and steel released the semi annual performance forecast of 2013. The company expects the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in the first half of the year to be about 39.34 million yuan -118 million yuan, a decrease of 70%-90% over the same period of the previous year. In the first half of 2013, the contradiction between supply and demand in the steel market remained prominent, and steel prices continued to fall; In addition, the degree of homogenization competition is still fierce, and the price has been running low for a long time, resulting in a sharp decline in the profitability of the company

● Tangshan's re launch of environmental protection measures may promote the strengthening of steel prices in the short term

Tangshan City, Hebei Province, as the "important town" of domestic steel production, has successively introduced environmental protection measures since this year. Recently, it was learned at the city's key project observation and economic situation analysis meeting that after the first batch of 199 heavily polluting enterprises and backward equipment were shut down in May, Tangshan will comprehensively start the second batch of polluting enterprises before the end of August. Industry insiders said that regardless of the final remediation results, each implementation of environmental protection measures will have a positive impact on the mentality of businesses, so the quotation of steel manufacturers in Tangshan is relatively strong at present

● Ministry of Commerce: the foreign trade situation in the second half of the year is more severe, and countermeasures will be taken. Yao Jian, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, said on the 11th that from the investigation of the Ministry of Commerce, the foreign trade situation in the second half of the year may be tighter than that in the first half of the year. Next, the Chinese government will work to improve trade facilitation, provide better services to small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises and further improve the international environment, so as to ensure the overall share of Chinese products in the global market. Previously, officials and academics generally believed that this year's foreign trade would be slightly better than last year, and there should be no problem in achieving the 8% growth target. However, with the sharp decline in foreign trade data in the past two months, especially the negative growth in June, which cooled the previous optimistic expectations, the Ministry of commerce also warned of the seriousness of the foreign trade situation

[disk summary]

on the 12th, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 2.30 points, or 0.01%, to 15463.22 points; Nasdaq composite index rose 21.78 points to close at 3,6 remarks: the consumption cost of processing 98% industrial grade flake vanadium pentoxide into vanadium electrolyte was 00.08 points, up 0.61%; The S & P 500 index rose 5.10 points, or 0.30%, to 1680.12. Light crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose $1.04, or 1%, to close at $105.95 a barrel. The price of gold futures for August delivery on Comex, a subsidiary of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), fell $2.30, or 0.2%, to $1277.60 per ounce. The US dollar index rose 0.19, or 0.23%, to 82.94. London Metal Exchange (LME) copper fell $49.25, or 0.7%, to $6953.25

[futures market analysis]

on the 12th, futures snail 01 opened 3646 low and fluctuated narrowly around the 3650 platform throughout the day, with a daily maximum of 3668 and a minimum of 3637, closing 3656 down 3, or 0.08%. The capital side was general, the trading volume shrank compared with the previous day, and the position decreased by 29000 hands. Technically, the high level of the K-line fluctuated to close the positive cross star. KDJ index dead cross down; MACD indicators run stronger. Most of the spot goods are strong, but the demand follow-up is limited. Operationally, bulls operate in high-level bands, pay attention to the 3650 platform competition, and bears wait and see for the time being. Expect the strong concussion of snails, which has more impact on the spot

[weekly inventory]

last week, the total social inventory of steel fell by 2.1% to 16.147 million tons, the inventory of thread fell by 2.0% to 7.033 million tons, and the previous week fell by 3.2%; 1.762 million tons of wire rod decreased by 5.8%, and the previous week decreased by 4.2%; 4.298 million tons of hot rolling decreased by 1.3% and 1.8% in the previous week; 1.617 million tons of cold rolling decreased by 1.1%, and increased by 0.7% in the previous week; 1.437 million tons of medium plate decreased by 1.6%, and the previous week decreased by 1.6%. We believe that due to the impact of the environmental protection inspection in the north, the operating rate of the finished product line has decreased, and some steel mills control the delivery speed, resulting in a decline in the market inventory of various varieties. In view of the current widespread shortage and the strong support of raw material costs, it is expected that the steel market will be stable, medium and strong this week

[steel market dynamics]

● ore: on the 14th, the iron ore market was mainly stable. In terms of the Platts index, the Platts index rose $1.5/ton on Friday, and now 62% of the Australian flour index is $128/ton. At the weekend, the business view and once the production coefficient is certainly expected to be more, the actual transaction at the port is limited, and some of them cannot be overestimated. At present, the transaction reference price of Shandong port is about Pb powder, Yang Di, special powder 770, Mike 850. The domestic ore market is stable and rising, and most of it is concentrated in the northern region. At present, there is a strong bullish sentiment among concentrators, and there is a great possibility that the ore price will continue to rise in a narrow range this week. Now Zunhua 60% coarse powder; 66% refined powder wet basis excluding tax; 62.5% pellet 930; Qian'an 66% refined powder wet basis is tax free

● coke: on the 12th, the ex factory tax price of Jiexiu secondary metallurgical coke was yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the ex factory tax price of Yinchuan tertiary metallurgical coke was 820 yuan/ton; the ex factory tax price of Linfen secondary metallurgical coke was 1050 yuan/ton; the ex factory tax price of Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke was yuan/ton; the ex factory tax price of Rizhao secondary metallurgical coke was yuan/ton; the ex factory tax price of Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 980 yuan/ton; and the ex factory tax price of Pingdingshan secondary metallurgical coke was yuan/ton, The ex factory tax price of Huaibei secondary metallurgical coke is 1300 yuan/ton, Qitaihe secondary metallurgical coke is yuan/ton, and the flat warehouse tax price of Tianjin Port secondary metallurgical coke is yuan/ton. The mainstream of the coke market is weak and stable, the steel market continues to strengthen, and the short-term pressure is relieved, but the market mentality is confused, and it is expected that the short-term market will still operate weakly and stably

● billet (Tangshan): Tangshan billet transaction is normal at the weekend, and the price is stable. At present, Changli is sent to Tangshan 3140 with tax included; Tangshan Guoyi and Xinglong Pu left the factory with carbon tax of 3120, and the dealer's bare price created conditions for further improving the recycling of packaging materials between 2013 and 2022 3030

● building materials: at the close of the 14th, the price of grade III earthquake resistant snail of Hegang in Beijing market was 3460 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Zhongtian second-class conch yuan/ton in Shanghai market, unchanged from the previous day; Guangzhou steel grade II conch in Guangzhou market was 3550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day

● plate: at the close of the 14th, the closing price of hot coil in Shanghai market was yuan/ton. It is expected that the two countries will not only be able to sign large-scale cooperation projects during this visit, which is basically the same as the previous day; The closing price of hot coil in Tianjin market was yuan/ton, basically unchanged from the previous day; Lecong hot coil market closed at yuan/ton, basically unchanged from the previous day

[forecast today]

● building materials: there is little change in relevant varieties over the weekend. Based on the high cost support of merchants in the building materials market and the shortage of some resources, the selling price is still high. However, due to the excessive cumulative increase of small factory resources, the intraday shipment situation is general, and individual resources are slightly callback after the rise. In some markets, due to the general downstream procurement at weekends, the willingness to adjust prices is not strong, and the overall wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. It is expected that the price of grade III earthquake resistant snails in Beijing market is 3460 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Zhongtian second-class conch yuan/ton in Shanghai market, unchanged from the previous day; Guangzhou steel grade II conch in Guangzhou market was 3550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day

● plate: in the market, there are few merchants in the city on weekends, and traders are basically on the sidelines, while Zhengzhou, Anyang and other cities in Central China generally rose, and the transactions after the rise are relatively general. At present, the high temperature phenomenon continues everywhere, the downstream operating rate is low, and the market trading atmosphere is light. However, the low inventory has supported the market price, and this round of rebound is accompanied by the price rise of leading steel mills such as WISCO. The market mentality continues to be cautious and optimistic, and it is expected that the National hot coil will be consolidated at a high level. The mainstream quotation of 5.5mm in Shanghai market is yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of 5.5mm Tangshan Steel in Tianjin market is yuan/ton; Lecong's mainstream quotation of 5.5mm Liugang is yuan/ton

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